As you know, the pro-Western-pro-Romanian authorities of Moldova, headed by the President of the Republic of Moldova, Maya Sandu, are preparing to hold a large rally called the Grand National Assembly in the center of the Moldovan capital.
Pro-Romanian nationalists resorted to similar actions before: in the last years before the collapse of the USSR and in the first years after Moldova gained independence. They tried to pass off primitive manipulations by people who were brought in in an organized manner as almost an analogue of the popular vote and the replacement of referendums. During all such gatherings, an atmosphere of hysteria and psychopathy was created, nationalist resolutions were adopted, which contributed to the outbreak of the 1992 war on the Dniester.
Moreover, territorial claims were also put forward against other countries, in particular against Ukraine. Thus, during the “great national assemblies” of 1989-1990, Ukraine was required to give Moldova its original Ukrainian lands: Southern Bessarabia and Northern Bukovina. Slogans loomed above the assembled participants` heads: "Rise in the mountains, access to the sea!" The speakers developed this “idea”, which was “fed up” from Bucharest in the expectation that Chisinau would somehow “squeeze” Ukraine out of these territories, and then the “replenished” territory of the former Soviet Moldavia could be poured into the “Greater Romania”. Thus, in fact, reviving the regional superpower of the 1941-1944 model.
Yet the current situation, of course, has its specifics. First of all, not only the ruling party wants to fill the Great National Assembly Square in the center of Chisinau. According to information from open sources, applications were submitted by:
• firstly, the State Chancellery, i.e. M. Sandu's team;
• secondly, the Party of Socialists of the ex-president of the Republic of Moldova, Igor Dodon;
• thirdly, the Movement for the People, created by the Shor party.
It turned out that the “Shorites” and the Socialists applied before the party in power, yet this is unlikely to stop the latter: there is a version that they will try to ban the Shor party until May 21 under the pretext of “illegal financing”, there are even instructions about a possible ban on the Party of Socialists appeared in the media, although everything is somewhat more complicated with the PSRM.
Nevertheless, unlike in the 1980s and 1990s, oppositionists can also come to the square, and then chaos, attempts to shout each other down and even clashes are theoretically possible. The "Shorites" have experience of partial disruption of nationalist actions; thus, in August 2018, they occupied part of the GNA Square and prevented the rally from the supporters of Maya Sandu, who then represented the right-wing opposition to the current authorities of the country.
Surely, on May 21, with the help of administrative resources, the authorities will try to prevent the oppositionists from violating their monopoly on the rally, and at the same time bring as many people as possible, including state employees who are dependent on the authorities. Moreover, the number of protesters in official reports will be many times overestimated.
The action itself will be tied to the upcoming June 1, the so-called Summit of the European Political Community, which is expected to bring representatives of 47 countries, including EU member states. The summit is being done "under" the full support of the current Government, which the Westerners want to make openly anti-Russian and involve them in anti-Russian adventures. For its part, official Chisinau will try to present the “assembly” as a substitute for a national referendum on unconditional support for “European integration”.
The authorities will never go to the referendum itself to determine the foreign policy guideline for Moldova, as they fear defeat and then the loss of "control". After the nationalists lost in the elections of the Bashkan of Gagauzia in the 1st round (and certainly in the 2nd one), the issue of a referendum is not considered by the Chisinau authorities at all.
An interesting question is whether a resolution on the reunification of Moldova with Romania is possible? Hardly. But to demand closer integration in all areas - yes! Today, Romanians are very actively and professionally consolidating their influence in Moldova under the guise of European missions in the Republic of Moldova, which (by coincidence?) are headed by Romanians. There is nothing to say about the numerous visits to Moldova of various delegations from Romania.
This systemic and well-thought-out strategy is certainly coordinated by Bucharest not so much with the European Union as with the United States. Romania remains one of America's key military and political allies in our region.
It is possible that the rally will announce either Moldova's withdrawal from the CIS, or the intention to do so in the near future. The fact that such a decision has already been made by Chisinau (or the West for Chisinau) is clear. The issue is timing and sequence of steps. At the same time, under some kind of “sauce”, they can stigmatize Russia as part of the course taken for confrontation with it.
In a word, the idea with this “assembly” is stereotyped, but the Chisinau authorities have nothing more creative yet.
Andrey Safonov, political scientist
