Tiraspol, June 15. /Novosti Pridnestrovya/. The day before, the main topic of the Government meeting was the Forecast of the republic`s socio-economic development in the near future. The document was presented by Deputy Prime Minister - Minister of Economic Development Sergey Obolonik. The emphasis was placed on the fact that the formation of the Forecast took place in the context of a high level of uncertainty in the development of the external situation around Pridnestrovie and the risks of intensifying destructive actions on the part of the Republic of Moldova. To model the economic situation in 2024, statistical data from various sectors of the national economy, the banking sector, and exporting enterprises were used. According to the Head of Government, this document is basic and extremely important for the layout of the 2024 budget.
As reported on the website of the Government, the scenario of the socio-economic development of the republic for the next year is based on a number of prerequisites, the main of which is the preservation of the possibility of carrying out foreign economic activity, as well as conducting payment and settlement operations with foreign counterparties. Sergey Obolonik also highlighted the preservation of uninterrupted gas supply to the republic and the stable operation of the metallurgical industry. An important role is played by the export of electric energy, as well as the steady demand of domestic energy-intensive industries. The exchange rate was also taken into account when making the Forecast.
“The initial assumptions underlying the forecasting process are subject to significant impact from risks, both regional and global. Accordingly, a change in the basic scenario conditions for the implementation of the activities of Pridnestrovian economic agents will be accompanied by adjustments to the presented forecast parameters,” Sergey Obolonik specified.
According to preliminary estimates, a sharp change in current conditions is not expected before the end of this year, which means that the dynamics is forecast to be weakly positive. By the end of 2023, the volume of production of the industrial sector may grow by 3.5%. Against the backdrop of last year's low base, positive dynamics is expected in the electric power industry and ferrous metallurgy. In relation to food industry enterprises oriented to the domestic market, moderate growth dynamics is predicted. However, continuing difficulties with access to the eastern sales market will have a negative impact on machine building and metalworking.
In agriculture, taking into account the expectation of favorable climatic conditions, the value of gross output may exceed 2022 by 18%. It is important that inflationary pressure on the consumer market is expected to decrease to 8-10% in annual terms in 2023. At the same time, the level of retail trade turnover can expand by 10%.
The volume of foreign trade turnover is expected to grow within 1.5%, including export - within 6%. Aggregate imports against the backdrop of lower prices in the global energy market will develop slightly below the level of 2022.
Sergey Obolonik noted the fact that the expected average monthly salary in the republic will grow by 6%.
The GDP growth rate in 2023 may reach 4.5%.
In 2024, if the current situation persists, a slightly positive trend in industrial output is also expected. Taking into account the predicted prices for agricultural products, as well as estimates of the harvest in 2024, the volume of gross output will increase by 2.3% compared to the expected figure in 2023.
Next year, a slight decrease in foreign trade indicators is expected: the total foreign trade turnover may decrease by 8.4% compared to the estimate of 2023, including exports - within 0.7%. For total imports, a decline in volumes to 10.9% is predicted.
Based on the indicated directions, which, under given scenario conditions, can characterize the development of the real sector of the economy, taking into account the predicted market trends in the global economy in 2024, the GDP indicator will be characterized by a slightly positive nominal growth dynamics within 1.8%.
According to Sergey Obolonik, the presented document describes the situation in the near future as accurately as possible and can serve to form a measured and balanced Law On the Budget for 2024.
In the context of forecasts for the development of the economy for the next year, the meeting participants discussed, among other things, support for enterprises. The Head of Government stressed that state support would continue to be provided to the industrial sector. The prospect of introducing new methods and approaches is being studied. In particular, Alexander Rozenberg focused on the possible subsidization of finished products. Decisions of this kind have yet to be discussed in detail in an expanded format with the involvement of representatives of the deputies and the business community.
