Moldova's protests have reached the stage when it is still possible to find a bloodless solution to the crisis. But if the West continues its active interference in Moldova's domestic affairs, Moscow may adequately respond by recognising Pridnestrovie's independence and even its incorporation into Russia, Alexey Martynov, director of the International Institute of Newly Formed States, told RIA Novyi Den.
According to him, all coups have similar scenarios. «They are all based on citizens' righteous discontent with their life and a political regime. We saw it in Ukraine, where, driven by righteous anger, people took to Maidan. The question is how the process is evolving and who will grab the lead of it," said Martynov.
He reminded journalists that a wave of Kiev protests was in due time endorsed by the EU and then by the USA. «Today Moldova has reached the stage of righteous protest when it is unclear what will come out of it," said the expert.
Martynov believes that given further active interference of the USA into Moldova's domestic affairs, Russia's recognising the independence of the PMR — and even holding another referendum on its accession to Russia — will be justified. «If the Ukrainian scenario takes place in Moldova, there must be asymmetrical responses. In this way, the recognition of the PMR followed by its voluntary accession to Russia could be a response to the USA's technological interference and organisation of a coup in Moldova," he commented.
Martynov notes that, if the recurrent outburst of protests in Kishinev prompts the West to radicalise Moldovans' sentiments, Pridnestrovie may hold a new voluntary referendum. «The result of this referendum may be predicted even today. It is evident that a new referendum must be held in the Crimean scenario for solving such serious, epochal-making issues, following which certain legal actions must be taken by Russia," he clarified.
There are sufficient legal and factual grounds for Pridnestrovie’s accession to Russia, Martynov believes. «There are 250,000 Russian citizens in the PMR, almost a half of Pridnestrovie's current population. Another half would like to obtain Russia's nationality, but for a number of reasons cannot do it so far," noted the expert, pointing at very complicated procedures of obtaining the nationality via the consulate in Kishinev.
According to Martynov, without foreign interference in its domestic policy Moldova is capable of handling the crisis on its own and in a bloodless manner.
«If they handle the situation without turning today's protests into a coup or a colour revolution and find their own way out of the political crisis, including holding early parliamentary elections, establishing rules of the game for citizens to elect lawmakers and the leadership, issues, including that of Pridnestrovie, may be alleviated," supposes the expert.
He recalled the period from 1997 to 2001 which saw a relatively stable political environment and marked economic growth both in Pridnestrovie and Moldova. «Then, unfortunately, the communists came to power, on the one hand; and on the other, the US embassy and other Western structures began their active interference. They once again caused quarrels between them and spoilt [everything]," stated Martynov.
However, «a bloodless scenario» seems too optimistic in the current circumstances, the expert added. «If there is no foreign interference and the political crisis bloodlessly results in forming a new nationally-oriented government, recognising the PMR and further efforts towards sustainable development will meet this government's interests. But, truly speaking, this scenario is very optimistic. But, judging from what is happening in Moldova today, there are no grounds for such optimism," believes the expert.
Commenting on implications of Pridnestrovie's recognition and accession to Russia, Martynov pointed out that there are fewer «maxims» about the infringement of national legislation two years later. «Of course, they [Western leaders] will never stop talking about it; this is their headache, but also their fault — they just don't admit it. But as for the international political discourse, there are few people who really doubt the correctness of Crimea's return to Russia," he said.
«This is what we call the objective reality — you may say it is not so as much as you want, but it is so anyway. You may say Pridnestrovie does not exist as much as you want, but it does. You may say as much as you want it is part of Moldova, but it isn't. These are things which will objectively occur sooner or later. On the other hand, for various reasons many officials want this to happen later when they have resigned and write memoirs in their dachas," concluded Martynov.
Source: RIA Novyi Den
