The new Republic of Moldova legislators’ corps elections on July 11 gave a convincing victory to the right-wing political forces represented by the party, which is actually led by the RM President Maia Sandu. We remind you that the PAS party will have about 63 mandates in the new parliament. However, the communists’ and the socialists’ bloc are lagging far behind it. The Communist Party (PCRM) as well as the Socialist Party (PSRM) manage only 32 parliamentary seats. The gap increased almost twice! The real defeat is evident, the reasons for which should be discussed separately.
Ilan Shor’s supporters demonstrated their combativity, who, according to many analysts “caught the last train” and took over 6 mandates.
Thus, it’s experiencing a situation when numerous centrists of different kinds were left behind, as well as parties that wanted to slip into parliament, avoiding clear answers to the question: “With whom are you masters of culture?!” This applies to all politicians too. Are you with West or with Russia? Unfortunately, these elections, like everything else since the year of 1990, when parliamentarians were freely elected by the Soviet Moldavia inhabitants for the first time, were premised on the citizens’ geopolitical predilections. There’s the only one way, because since the Moldovan society is practically torn apart into two parts.
As a result, the parliament has the only three forces. At the same time, the two of them the PAS as well as the Communist Party (PCRM) and Socialist Party (PSRM) are openly standing in opposition to each other, but the Shor’s party will most likely be forced to be included into the opposition alliance (whether public or private one) with the commi and the social democrats. Moreover, it isn’t easy to indicate alternative for Ilan Shor and his party, because he had a long-standing, as one of the Mimino film’s hero noted, “a personal discountenance” with Maya Sandu.
How everything could have an impact on the situation around the PMR?
Firstly, it’s necessary to answer the question of how the new Chisinau government will be independent in its decisions. To the extent that Washington, Brussels and Bucharest want to exert pressure on Tiraspol with the help of Chisinau in one form or another, then all tensions between two republics on the Dniester river can be assumed to grow. It should be taken into account that the Moldovan-Pridnestrovian contradictions are strongly bumping up against differences between the West and the East. It’s important whether the “biggest players” will be able to agree against each other not to interfere the situation in our region, or whether everything will narrow down to another geopolitical confrontation’s point…
Secondly, the Chisinau elite will certainly discuss one more aspect: whether it’s important to immediately resolve the pressing Moldova’s social and economic issues or to draw attention away from the people through one or another threatening on Pridnestrovie. The first conclusions might be drew on candidates, who will occupy the Speaker of Parliament as well as the Prime Minister of the Government chairs. Will it be explicit or implicit “hawks” or relative “doves” through which it will be possible to contact Tiraspol and Moscow as well as to solve urgent issues? It will shortly be seeing.
Thirdly, will the newest Moldova’s leadership radically-minded part attempt to deal with their parliamentary opponents from among the commi and the social democrats including the Shor’s ones by parliamentary privilege’s deprivation on various charges (in such cases, it doesn’t matter on what exactly one)? Whereas something similar starts to happen in the Moldovan parliament, then it will be clear that the right-wing forces, which took power on July 11, aren’t inclined to negotiate with otherwise-minded inside the Republic of Moldova. However, then it’s logical once again to expect the pressure’s increasing on Pridnestrovie. Admittedly, some politicians from the Maia Sandu’s party made externally conciliatory statements as though their left-wing parliamentary opponents had good ideas that could be discussed and conjointly implemented into life. Nevertheless, the political left should certainly remain on edge.
Fourthly, Romania, definitely will intensify its unionist work in Moldova and will attempt to penetrate into Pridnestrovie as well as identifying in the PMR for both pro-Romanian nationalists who have continued living there since the beginning of the 90s, and young people who graduated from schools and who’re working in Pridnestrovie under the Chisinau jurisdiction. Obviously, this will require Pridnestrovian politicians and media representatives to reconstruct their work in many respects, with reference to modern rules as well as the young audiences’ interests. It’s naive to doubt that the Pridnestrovian statehood’s contradictors will try to have an impact also on a part of the Pridnestrovian non-commercial organization and the not numerous the Pridnestrovian re-orientation’s supporters from Russia to Western countries. By the way, it was precisely such each and all “activists” who well-known to Pridnestrovians in social networks a day earlier of the Moldovan parliamentary elections openly urged Moldovan passports’ Pridnestrovian recipients to vote approval the PAS party.
However, this’s a general analysis. Nowadays Pridnestrovie can develop two important convictions based on the Moldovan post-electoral situation.
The first one. It’s now abundantly clear that the Russia’s positions preservation on the Dniester river isn’t in the Moldovan political action’s plane (because there the pro-Western and pro-Romanian forces’ victory is too obvious), but in strengthening of DIRECT ties with the PMR in every direction.
The second one. For Pridnestrovian diplomacy, as before, it’s important to achieve in the dialogue with Chisinau the previously concluded agreements’ effective implementation. Such approach is actually stabilizing the situation and complicating plans of those who supposedly find a solution only in the sharp confrontation between the Dniester river banks.
Anyway, the PMR foreign policy won’t change because of the Moldovan electoral outcome. The Eurasian choice of Tiraspol and the European one of Chisinau don’t interfere in any way long-standing problems’ solution in the sphere of economy, transport, communications, passenger and cargo services. The equitable dialog is the ultimate way to make such decisions.
The material was prepared by political scientist Andrey Safonov
