Today it is difficult to find a person — even far removed from politics — who does not know at least in general terms about the economic blockade of Pridnestrovie. So long have the neighbours been blocking the country's economic potential that it has already become part of Pridnestrovie's reality. Everyone here has got used to the blockade — have not put up with it, but learnt to survive under circumstances that have nothing in common with good neighbourly relations between states.
The commonness of blockade has resulted in a natural and at the same time dangerous phenomenon: the fact that the country's economy functions in the discrimination regime has not been given much attention to. There is a real danger to overlook a continuous contraction of the blockade grip, i.e. the blockade has been and is a direct and the most serious threat for Pridnestrovie. In terms of legal personality, it is the economy which is now Pridnestrovie's Achilles' heel. The neighbouring countries realise various, including political tasks towards Pridenstrovie by using economic methods and by exerting pressure on Pridnestrovian enterprises.
Many will wish to argue this statement, saying there is no bigger threat than «defrosting» the conflict with Moldova and a new war in the region. On the whole, the argument is true, but one fact: a war will not go unnoticed and force major geopolitical players to interfere into the situation, and the aggressor will not benefit, as we know, from the outcome of the conflict. On the other hand, a sluggish destruction and reattachment of Pridnestrovie's economy by the neighbouring states by toughening the customs regime will not attract so much attention of the international community and mass media.
Suppose that Ukraine's border guards do not allow cargoes of some Pridnestrovie's manufacturers to pass through the border because they are not registered in Moldova. It does not look like a sensation news, does it? And at the same time, such actions compel the country's enterprises to decrease and even stop production, reduce budget revenues and cut government reserves. In fact, the undeclared war has already been unleashed against Pridnestrovie and is being pursued through blockade measures, by intentionally decreasing Pridnestrovie's mobilization and resource potential.
It is worth noting that the chief ideologist and organiser of the blockade, Moldova, carries out a well-thought strategy and implements the most tangible restrictions only on receiving the tacit approval of their «partners». For example, the key stage of the 2006 blockade, when Pridnestrovie's right for free export to the CIS countries was restricted, was introduced under Viktor Yushchenko, who had considerable liabilities to his partners (during Kuchma's presidency Ukraine's position towards Pridnestrovie had been more balanced). Then, it should be recalled, Pridnestrovian manufacturers were obliged to get registered in Moldova and export their production upon availability of Moldovan documents, which in fact resulted in double taxation, destruction of traditional logistics and ruined whole sectors of the Pridnestrovian economy. Moldova's government had a wide range of tools for compelling Pridnestrovie's economic agents to make more concessions in the sphere of control, accountability, licensing and documents preparation.
The following blockade stage was coincident with Ukraine's crisis. During that period the attitude of Ukraine's authorities towards Pridnestrovie became the most hostile, and against this background the scheme similar to that in 2006 was used to block Pridnestrovie's import. Not only excisable goods but also any import by Pridnestrovie's enterprises that are not registered and licensed in Moldova were prohibited to pass through the border.
It is obvious that Moldova aims to establish total control over the economy of the PMR. To complete this process, Moldova needs to control the border of Pridnestrovie and Ukraine. And this, evidently, final accord of the symphony called «economic blockade» is going to be played in the soonest possible time.
As of today, the implementation of Moldova and Ukraine's intention to control the whole Pridnestrovie-Ukrainian border is at its final stage. The pilot Kuchurgan-Pervomaysk checkpoint is almost ready to be launched. Even the technological scheme has already been agreed for this checkpoint. Pridnestrovie learnt about the project at the stage when Moldova and Ukraine had finally agreed every detail. Then everything followed the old scenario: Moldova pretended the initiative was quite recent, and it was no more than an initiative, and even invited Pridnestrovie to take part in the discussion of the issue (actually, already solved). Besides, Moldova's authorities began, as always, to shift responsibility onto Ukraine, saying the idea was Ukrainian and, in general, originated from Europe as Ukraine had assumed certain commitments to the EU and was developing its border as appropriate.
The situation bears very strong resemblance to the well-known 2006 story when Pridnestrovie's export was blocked, as well as the DACFTA agreement between Moldova and the EU, which was not coordinated with Pridnestrovie. In all these situations the decisions were taken secretly from Pridnestrovie, and each time the country was given the role of a wingside spectator: he should be presented with the fact of a new reality which he has to fit in, like it or not.
In fact, the organisation of the joint customs control by Moldova and Ukraine over the Pridnestrovie-Ukrainian border will finish the establishment of final and full-scale blockade over the country's foreign economic activities. Moldova will take under its control all Pridnestrovian imports, and its export and import transactions will be subject to the Moldovan legislation. There are also some other, no less annoying details, such as the necessity for the vehicles imported to Pridnestrovie to pass customs clearance in Moldova.
The traditional war presumes that conflict sides try to take under physical control the enemy's territory, simply speaking, to occupy it. Having unleashed the economic war against Pridnestrovie, Moldova is striving to exercise absolute control over the country's economy, thus carrying out a non-military occupation.
It is evident that, in case the project of Moldova and Ukraine's joint customs control over the Pridnestrovian border comes true, the leadership of the PMR will have to take adequate measures appropriate to war-time laws to protect the country's sovereignty and rights of its people. Negotiations with Moldova are likely to lose their meaning; therefore, the whole 5+2 format is under the threat of destruction. It is highly possible that any contacts with Moldova will be disrupted, which means that there will be no opportunity to discuss the existing contradictions that anyway increase in number from day to day. Each side will pursue its own interests, and the state has the right to defend them in any possible way. There is no need to explain what will come out of it.
It is necessary to admit that Moldova intentionally provokes escalation of the conflict, realising how dangerous that may be. There is no doubt the most appropriate time has been selected: Ukraine's attitude towards Pridnestrovie leaves much to be desired, Pridnestrovie's economy is in serious crisis, and Russia, traditional Pridnestrovie's ally, is dealing with tasks of global importance. Moldova does not take into account the main thing: deadlock situations are the most unpredictable and explosive.
Pavel Uvarov
