Last week Russia's deputy foreign minister, Grigoriy Krasin, hold a meeting with the assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, Victoria Nuland, in Zurich, Switzerland. During the meeting the diplomats discussed a peaceful solution to the Ukrainian conflict.
Ahead of the diplomatic meeting, Maxim Yusin, a commentator for Kommersant daily, said on air of the Ъ-FM radio that «until very recently Moscow has preferred to discuss Ukrainian issues with more neutral and less biased mediators than the Americans, in the first line, with the Germans and the French.» However, according to the author, the implementation of the Minsk process, among whose guarantors are Russia, France, Germany and theoretically Ukraine, is evidently stalled.
«In this situation, when the dialogue between Moscow and Kiev is actually frozen, the most efficient way to bring some ideas to the attention of the Ukrainian leadership is through the USA," says Maxim Yusin. According to him, the active involvement of the USA into the dialogue is caused by its «absolute credibility» in Kiev and «almost 100% chances to make Ukraine's authorities to accept any decision.»
«The most important thing for Russia and the USA (hence Ukraine) is to lay down certain rules, determine boundaries of inadmissible and draw «red lines», violation of which may make the situation go into a tailspin and out of control. Nobody wants it," Maxim Yusin explains his main idea.
He thinks there are a number of evident «red lines». For instance, a large scale offensive by DNR and LNR military forces, which may entail front line changes, is seen as absolutely inadmissible by the USA. On the other, Moscow can determine its own «red line», and it is not Ukraine's offensive on Donetsk and Luhansk which the Ukrainian forces are not capable to make, but rather Pridnestrovie separated from Russia.
«As many in Moscow fear, a certain large scale provocation may be carried out in the region, which Ukraine may use as a pretext for a military attack on the Russian detachment in Pridnestrovie, separated from the main body and virtually blocked," notes Yusin.
The commentator does not presume to judge if such plans really exist in Kiev and Odessa, where «Mikhail Saakashvili, hateful to Russia, rules.» The author, however, finds it logical that this issue should be discussed in the Karasin-Nuland format.
«It is logical to warn the Americans (hence Kiev) that in case of any attack on Russia's detachment in Pridnestrovie Russia will not be confined to passive defence only. Neither did they in South Ossetia 7 years ago," Yusin believes.
The journalist hopes nobody is going to cross these «red lines», but it wouldn't be out of place to set the record straight and clarify the intents, «even if for prophylactic purposes.»
It should be noted that Grigoriy Karasin has estimated the meeting with his American colleague as constructive. «Moscow is proceeding from the fact that the USA is ready to exert pressure on Kiev. It was a very detailed, open, and on the whole constructive dialogue," the Rosbalt news agency cites Karasin as saying. The parties have agreed to continue contacts in the Karasin-Nuland format and hold another meeting at the end of June.
