The Russian expert, RISS Dnister-Prut Centre deputy director and head of scientific programmes, Vasily Kashirin, has given an exclusive interview to the Novosti Pridnestrovya information agency
Novosti Pridnestrovya: Mr Kashirin, at the end of May Ukraine's parliament denounced a number of military cooperation agreements with Russia, particularly, on transit of cargoes for the Russian peacekeepers in Pridnestrovie. How do you think it will affect the peacekeeping mission carried out under the aegis of Russia?
Vasily Kashirin: In fact, the Russian military in Pridnestrovie have long been in the transport and logistic blockade. This activity aims at isolating Pridnestrovie and creating unbearable conditions for the Russian troops with the West's main and most desirable goal of liquidating Russia's military presence on the Dniester banks. This, according to Western strategists, will pave the way for the liquidation of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic. Is it clear to Russia's competent circles? Yes, everything is quite clear, and there are no starry-eyed illusions about it.
The attitude of the Russian top leadership towards the maintenance of the peacekeeping operation in the existing format is inviolable. Any attempts to disrupt the operation will be taken as a direct threat to the security of Pridnestrovie's population including nearly 200,000 Russian citizens.
Novosti Pridnestrovya: What actions should Moscow take to protect its peacekeepers and compatriots residing in Pridnestrovie? How to solve the problem of equipping the peacekeepers in this situation?
Vasily Kashirin: There is no doubt that decisions, including asymmetric ones, are being sought. For a while the Russian military will have to quarter and serve in Pridnestrovie in conditions of extremely difficult communications with Russia. In fact, they are under siege now. Living under siege is nothing new to a Russian soldier. History has shown it is under siege when his unprecedented staunchness, unpretentiousness, fortitude and self-sacrifice become evident. There is no doubt that the Russian contingent in Pridnestrovie will have to live for a while on local resources — both human and material. The process of enrolling local population to the Russian contingent is under way, which is entirely positive for Pridnestrovie. Meanwhile, politicians will be looking for solutions to the blockade issue. If it comes to the worst-case scenario, there is an air communication, and Russia's defence ministry has already declared it is considering the possibility of using it. This would be a very important precedent.
Novosti Pridnestrovya: Can it be that this decision by Ukraine's Rada is a part of Poroshenko's plan on conflict unfreezing that he announced in Bucuresti. And what other destructive steps shall we expect from Kiev in this regard?
Vasily Kashirin: Ukraine's pressure on the Russian contingent in Pridnestrovie is undoubtedly a part of the strategy of its Western and, first of all, American sponsors aimed at unfreezing the conflict and liquidating Pridnestrovie in its present form. Western agencies need a crisis and a war in this part of the ex-USSR. And Ukraine's authorities, in their turn, have dual objectives: they are following their masters' instructions to promote tensions on the Dniester banks, and at the same time they consider their activities in this region to be a bargaining chip in their talks with Russia, concerning purely economic issues as well.
Novosti Pridnestrovya: In the meantime, alongside with Kiev, Kishinev has been actively preventing the rotation of the peacekeeping forces. More than ten Russian soldiers have been banned from entering Moldova over the past month. What does Moldova's leadership try to achieve and what could Russia do to bring Kishinev officials down to earth and make them commit to the basic agreements on peaceful regulation in Pridnestrovie?
Vasily Kashirin: The position of Moldova's current government is unsteady and unstable. Certain forces in the Moldovan leadership would be of course glad to use Ukraine's events to settle accounts with Pridnestrovie. However, there is a permanent crisis of power in Moldova. The ruling circles are manoeuvring between the West and Russia, fearing the pro-Russian opposition will come to power. In other words, they are afraid of burning bridges behind them, and, moreover, they fear the outbreak of a «hot» phase of the conflict. Banning Russian experts, journalists and soldiers from entering Moldova is, first of all, playing with fire, challenging Russia.
Russia is waiting for the time present, and Moldova's audacity is of course gradually growing. But they must realise there would be a response. Besides, this response can seriously infringe on business interests of the persons close to the Moldovan authorities and having business in Russia. Moldova's government is a government of businessmen, and their business is the most vulnerable spot to hit.
Interviewed by Irina Iordanova
